In two out of the last six presidential elections, the Republican lost the popular vote, but won the Electoral College. Remember in 2016 when Donald Trump won 45.9% of the popular vote, Hillary Clinton won 48.0%, but Trump became the president anyway? What a wild ride.
Remember Wednesday, November 9, 2016? Now, imagine it's Wednesday, November 6, 2024.
By Mike Reid | May 2024
Look, Donald Trump has an extremely straightforward path to winning in November, making him president again from January 2025 until January 2029.
Let's dive into some Electoral College math to understand why.
First, remember that you need 270 Electoral College votes to win.
Well, Donald Trump is going to win 219 of those easily.
219 Electoral Votes:
Idaho. Montana. Wyoming. Utah. Nebraska. North Dakota. South Dakota. Iowa. Kansas. Missouri. Oklahoma. Arkansas. Louisiana. Mississippi. Alabama. Tennessee. Kentucky. Indiana. Ohio. West Virginia. South Carolina. Texas. Florida. And Alaska.
All red states.
But, here's some better news: The blue states give us 226 votes!
226 Electoral Votes:
Vermont. Maine. New Hampshire. Massachusetts. Rhode Island.
Connecticut. New York. New Jersey. Delaware. Maryland. Illinois. Minnesota. Colorado. New Mexico. Washington. Oregon. Hawaii.
California. All still blue. Unless things totally fall apart.
Even Virginia is a blue state these days. (Biden won Virginia by 10.1% in 2020.)
DC even gets to participate in the Electoral College — thanks to the 23rd Amendment passed in 1961 — with three blue votes.
&
And yes, technically Maine will likely give one vote to Trump and Nebraska will likely give one vote to Biden because those states give votes based on congressional districts. So that'll be a wash.
Anyway, what's left?
Just seven states!
Five of the seven Trump won in 2016 but lost (barely) in 2020: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona.
93 Electoral Votes:
Add in North Carolina, which Joe Biden got close to winning in 2020 and has indicated they're going on offense here in 2024.
Add Nevada too. Trump lost the state in both 2016 and 2020, but just barely both times.
Ok. To recap. In America it matters not one bit which candidate wins the popular vote. What matters is the Electoral College.
And you need 270 votes in the Electoral College to win.
Donald Trump has 219 votes on lockdown.
Joe Biden has 226 votes on lockdown.
Therefore, the election outcome will be determined by just seven states: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina.
All of these states were EXTREMELY close in both 2016 and 2020.
And if 2024 is a repeat of 2020, but the dynamics of the election are even slightly more favorable to Donald Trump, Trump will win, returning as president from January 2025 - January 2029.
2023 was an extremely bad year for the Democrats. So without a bold shift in our strategy in 2024, how can we expect anything to change?
What are the dynamics? Well, right now, the nation is in exactly the kind of sour mood that's extremely bad news for incumbents.
Just 28% of Americans are satisfied with the economy.
Just 14% of Americans feel like things in the country are under control, with 73% saying things feel out of control.
And just 17% of Democrats ages 18-29 support Joe Biden as the party's nominee, which is going to make it extremely challenging for Democrats to hire campaign staff in the 2024 cycle.
I do think this is all a pretty big problem. I mean, don't you?
History shows us that unpopular incumbents consistently lose.
A stark illustration of this is the 2020 election, the most recent in memory, where President Donald Trump, faced with dwindling popularity, lost his reelection bid to Joe Biden.
In 1992, President George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton.
In 1980, President Jimmy Carter was defeated by Ronald Reagan.
In 1976, President Gerald Ford was defeated by Jimmy Carter.
In 1932, President Herbert Hoover was defeated by Franklin D. Roosevelt.
In 1912, President William Howard Taft lost to Woodrow Wilson.
In 1882, President Benjamin Harrison was defeated by Grover Cleveland.
In 1840, President Martin Van Buren was defeated by William Henry Harrison.
And in 1828 John Quincy Adams was defeated by Andrew Jackson.
Oh, and here's a doozy:
In 1888, President Grover Cleveland was challenged by Benjamin Harrison. Despite winning the popular vote by a narrow margin, Cleveland earned just 168 electoral votes to Harrison's 233 votes.
However, the fire in Cleveland's belly was not extinguished by his loss; on the contrary, it was stoked. In the election of 1892, he ran again and defeated President Harrison decisively.